When Will This Outbreak Slow Down?

Outbreaks tend to fade when:

• Movement stops
• Cases are isolated early
• Barns adopt strict biosecurity
• Events enforce regulations

However, new clusters can appear when:

• Travel resumes too quickly
• Infected but asymptomatic horses move between barns
• Facilities fail to disinfect equipment or shared spaces

Seasonality also plays a role—winter barns with low ventilation are especially vulnerable.